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The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don'T [Audiobook] download free by Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don'T Audiobook download free by Nate Silver
  • Listen audiobook: The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don'T
  • Author: Nate Silver
  • Release date: 2012/4/26
  • Publisher: PENGUIN PUTNAM INC
  • Language: English
  • Genre or Collection: Society and Social Sciences
  • ISBN: 9781594204111
  • Rating: 8.06 of 10
  • Votes: 700
  • Review by: Davion Chau
  • Review rating: 9.38 of 10
  • Review Date: 2018/11/2
  • Duration: 6H31M27S in 256 kbps (106.8 MB)
  • Date of creation of the audiobook: 2018-08-16
  • You can listen to this audiobook in formats: WAV, ATRAC, MP3, Shorten, MPEG4, WMA, FLAC (compression RAR, ZIP, TBZ, TZO)
  • Total pages original book: 534
  • Includes a PDF summary of 43 pages
  • Duration of the summary (audio): 32M55S (8.6 MB)
  • Description or summary of the audiobook: 'Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century.' -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the 'prediction paradox' The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
  • Other categories, genre or collection: Economic Forecasting, Social Research & Statistics, Social Forecasting, Future Studies, Economics, Probability & Statistics, Politics & Government
  • Download servers: Mejor Torrent, Tresorit, Microsoft OneDrive, 4Shared, BitShare, Google Drive. Compressed in RAR, ZIP, TBZ, TZO
  • Format: Hardback
  • Approximate value: 32.91 USD
  • Dimensions: 152x239x30mm
  • Weight: 816g
  • Printed by: Not Available
  • Published in: New York, NY, United States

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Categories: Society and Social Sciences, PENGUIN PUTNAM INC, English, 2012
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Genres
Natural History Society and Social Sciences
Languages
Spanish Not Available English
Publishers
HAY HOUSE INC LULU.COM THE HISTORY PRESS LTD MICHAEL O'MARA BOOKS LTD LITTLE TOLLER BOOKS FARRAR, STRAUS & GIROUX INC
Years
1986 2012 1987 1995 2009 2010 2007 2002 1989
Authors
Oliver Sacks Richard Mabey Willow Creek Press Dk Sigmund Freud Henry David Thoreau